The USDJPY has seen swings up and down in trading today. The early Asian session low stalled just ahead of the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the November swing low at 113.984. The low reached 114.017.
The subsequent rise took the price near swing highs from yesterday's trade (and above its 100 hour moving average in the process). That run stalled and after falling back below the 100 hour moving average again, buyers turned to sellers, and forced the price back down toward the retracement level for the second time today.
Joining the 61.8% retracement is swing highs and lows going back to December 8 (see red numbered circles). Last Friday, the price fell below the swing area and the retracement level - and tried to stay below (see red circle five) - but failed. That helped push the price to the high seen on Tuesday.
Since then, the price has stepped lower.
Overall, the sellers are more control, at least in the intermediate/short-term.
Why?
- The run higher on Tuesday extended above the 100 hour moving average, but stalled against the 200 hour moving average. The buyers had their shot, they couldn't get above those moving averages.
- The price is currently back below the 50% retracement of the move up from the November low as well as the 100 hour moving average. Both of those technical levels are at 114.434 today. Stay below keeps the sellers more in control
Yes the 61.8% retracement and swing area still needs to be broken, and buyers can lean against that level with low risk (simply sell on a break below). However, the technicals still support the downside mostly on the hourly chart. That can change starting with holding support, but there is still more work to be done.
