The USDJPY is working on its 3rd down day in a row after peaking on Friday and starting a retracement move back to the downside.
The fall today did reach the 50% retracement of the move up from the January 24 low to the high reached on Friday. That level came in at 114.572. The low price today reached 114.559 before reversing back to the upside. The pair also stayed above its rising 200 hour moving average at 114.495 (green line in the chart above).
The move to the downside yesterday stalled the fall right at its 100 hour moving average (blue line). That moving average was broken in the Asian session today, and stayed below on corrective moves after that break.
As a result, the pair is consolidating between the 200 hour moving average below at 114.498, and the 100 hour moving average above at 115.103. The current price is trading at 114.76.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the low price from last week stalled near the low price from January 14. That was also near the 38.2% retracement of the last move higher from the August 2021 low to the January 2022 high (at 113.430) and the rising 100 day MA. Needless to say, going forward that area from 113.43 to 113.56 (100 day MA) will be a key level to get below if the sellers are to take back more control. Be aware.
On the topside, the high price on the last corrective move to the upside did get above the November 2021 high (which was also the high price for the year at 115.513. The price reached 115.68 before rotating back to the downside. Moving back above 115.513 should be met with increase momentum on the next break (if it happens).
For now, the borders have been set for traders. On the topside the 100 hour moving average at 115.10 is the close upside target. On the downside the 50% retracement 114.57 and the rising 100 hour moving average at 114.50 are the targets. In between, where we trade currently, the buyers and sellers will battle it out for control.
