The USDJPY moved above its 200/100 hour moving averages yesterday, and in the process nearly retraced all of the declines from Friday's trade (see post here from yesterday). After breaking above the moving average, the price was able to "hang" above the moving averages although the lower 200 hour MA was tested near the close of trading yesterday.
However, that test of the 200 hour MA ended up holding support in the early Asian session. Later in the Asian session, an intraday corrective low stalled ahead of the rising 100 hour moving average (blue line). That was a go-ahead to push higher to the buyers, and they did push to the upside.
The price in the European/London session has seen a steady run to the upside. However the price high stalled near the low of a higher swing area between 115.786 and 115.867 (see red numbered circles and yellow area at the top). Staying below that area, keeps the price in the "red box" that has confined the pair over the last 17 days between 114.40 and 115.87 (147 pips).
Sellers on queue, came in and leaned against the area as risk could be defined and limited. The price has since rotated modestly lower. The current price is trading at 115.68.
What next?
On the move to the upside today, the price was able to extend back above the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the February 10 high at 115.597. It also moved above short-term swing highs from Friday's trade (see green numbered circles one and two in the chart above).
If the buyers are to make a push outside of the "red box", staying above that area between 115.53 to 115.597 would be a springboard for that type of move and break.
What about a move below that area?
Moving below it does not take away some of the bullish bias seen today on the move away from the moving averages, but it would weaken that momentum a bit. A move back toward the 100 hour MA would become more of a possibility on buyers disappointment.
For now, there is some profit taking, but the buyers are trying to hold on control.
