The USDJPY is moving away from its rising 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above).. That moving average currently comes in at 127.601. The price moved below that moving average for the first time since April 1 today when the moving average was at 121.88. The high price last week reached 129.40. The low price just reached 127.205.
The move lower has also taken the price just below the 50% midpoint of the last trend leg higher (from the April 14 low). That low on April 14 was the last test of its 100 hour moving average before moving up to the high last week of 129.40.
Yesterday the price traded mostly below its 100 hour moving average (blue line) which was a tilt to the downside technically.
Today, the rebound after the first test of the 200 hour moving average failed, the price moved up to retest the 100 hour moving average, but found willing sellers. The last nine or so hours have seen a steady move to the downside culminating in the break below the 200 hour moving average.
What now?
Close risk is the 200 hour moving average. Sellers are making a play. It is the first move below that moving average since April 1. It is now up to the sellers to keep the pressure on and to keep the price below that 200 hour moving average level.
On the downside getting below the 50% of the last leg higher is a further confirmation with the next target near the 61.8% at 126.727. There is a swing area between 126.67 and 126.784 which straddles that retracement level. Below that level and traders will start to target 126.31 (swing high from April 13 and near swing lows from April 15 and April 18).
