The BoC is due at 1400GMT on July 10. Earlier previews and CAD outlook are here:

Press conference from Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins to follow at 1515GMT.

Adding in this via Scotia (in brief)

  • No rate change is expected.
  • The broad concluding bias is likely to be something similar to how "the degree of accommodation being provided by the current policy interest rate remains appropriate" with a data dependent watch mode continuing. The broad narrative in favour of a rebounding domestic economy in the second quarter is well on track. So is guidance provided in the May 29th statement that "Core inflation measures all remain close to 2 per cent" and indeed the latest figures average a tick north of that
  • Key may be how the BoC views external risks that it warned had increased in May.
  • Further, watch for key guidance toward Q3 GDP. Recall that the BoC only forecasts out a quarter at a time and the April MPR published quarterly GDP growth up to 2019Q2. While it has to revise up that 1.3% estimate for Q2 to something that would probably be deep in the 2s perhaps bordering upon 3%, how the BoC views the durability of this improvement relative to potentially temporary and distorted drivers is key by way of assessing 2019H2 risks.