Latest inflation report now out
- CPI to remain below 1% until HS 2016
- 80% of inflation shortfall is due to energy, food and other imports
- model forecast CPI 2017 at 2.1% based on market interest rates last week
- market interest rate assumption based on first rate hike in Q1 2017
- margin of spare capacity to be eliminated over the next year
- forecast unemployment rate at 5.5% in 2017 vs 5.05 prev
- GDP forecast Q4 qq 2015 +0.6%.expects Q3 to be revised up to +0.6%
- GDP forecasts trimmed to 2015 +2.7%, 2016 +2.5%, 2017 +2.7%
Full report here
Not good reading for GBP bulls
Also out the BOE MPC Minutes:
- McCafferty the lone hawk again
- outlook for global growth weaker than August
- downside risks inc more abrupt EM slowdown
- domestic momentum resilient
- growth likely to pick up a little in mid-2016
Full Minutes here
Pound getting a good kicking on the less than hawkish news.
GBPUSD down to 1.5290 and EURGBP up to 0.7108
GBP buyers noted nearby though as per my preview but beware the presser at 12.45 GMT
