Commonwealth Bank of Australia shifting their projected hike schedule forward alongside other major Australian banks that have already done so.
Says the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike beginning in November 2022. CBA citing (bolding mine):
- labour market has tightened at a phenomenal pace
- underutilisation in May was at its lowest since early 2013
- forward looking indicators of labour demand are very strong
- labour supply is constrained
- which means the labour market will continue to tighten very quickly and wages growth will accelerate
- The Commonwealth fiscal stance as well as the targeted level of net overseas immigration in 2022/23 will have a large bearing on nominal wage outcomes and therefore the path of interest rates.
- We expect the RBA to begin normalising monetary policy in late 2022 and see the cash rate target at 0.5% at end-2022 and then peaking at 1.25% by 03 2023.
CBA economists have forecast for key economic indicators also:
- We have forecast the trimmed mean to be1.8%/yr by end-2021 and 2.2%/yr by end-2022. Headline inflation is expected to be 1.8%/yr by end-2021 and 2.3%/yr by end-2022.
- We forecast wages growth to accelerate to 2.4%/yr by end 2021 and 2.9%/yr by end-2022
- forecast the unemployment rate to be 4.5% at end-2021and 4.0% by end-2022
Earlier:
- ANZ's latest call on RBA rate hikes - beginning in H2 2023
- The labour market is tightening faster than we expected, potentially pressuring our call for a rate hike in H2 2023.
- More on Westpac forecasting an RBA cash rate hike in early 2023
Awaiting NAB now of the big four Oz banks.
