Yes it's all eyes on the ECB and the imminent decision
Here's a quick summary of what the major banks are looking for, courtesy of MNI
ECB VIEW: Majority of banks expect ECB to cut rates and extend timeframe of QE
on Thursday, but have mixed views on possible increase in monthly purchases:
Barclays: Expect ECB to extend
timeframe of QE, and cut depot rate to -0.30%.
Do not rule out possibility of a larger "two-tier" cut in depot rate.
- Citi: Expect deposit rate cut to -0.40%, QE to increase by E15bln p/m and
extend for at least 6-months. See chance of Refi rate cut to 0bp from 5bp.
- RBC: Expect 20bp deposit rate cut & 6-month extension to QE.
- Rabobank: See ECB cutting deposit rate by 15bp and increase QE by E30bln p/m.
- Standard Bk: ECB to extend QE for a year and lower deposit rate by 20bp.
- BNP: Expect ECB to cut deposit rate to -40bps, increase QE by E10bln p/m and
extend it by 12-months to Sep 2017.
- RBS: Expect ECB to cut deposit rate to -0.40%, increase QE by E15bln p/m and
extend it to Mar 2017.
- Commerzbank: ECB to increase and extend QE "for as long as
necessary", also
include regional govt bonds. Deposit rate likely cut to "somewhere around
-0.40%
- UBS: Expect 10bp cut to deposit rate and 3 to 6-month extension of QE.
- JPM: Forecast 10bp cut in deposit rate & cumulative increase of E300bn in
QE.
- Goldman: Expect ECB to cut deposit rate to -0.30%, but leave refi rate at
5bps
& extend QE through end of Q3 2017.
- HSBC: Cut deposit rate by 10bp and drop Sep 2016 timing of QE
- Nomura: Expect ECB to extend QE to "end June 2017 or beyond",
increase monthly
purchases by E10bln and cut deposit rate to -0.30%
- BAML: Expect ECB to extend QE to at least Sep 2017, rise purchases to E70bln
p/m and cut deposit rate to -0.30%
- Pimco: Raise QE by E10bln p/m & extend to Mar 2017. Cut deposit rate to
-0.30%
and MRO to 0.0%.
- Morgan Stanley: Cut deposit rate to -0.30%, leave refi rate on hold but
increase marginal lending rate to 0.40%. Increase QE by 15bln p/m & extend
by
6-months.
