- Fitch: US rating will be put on rating watch negative if ceiling not raised (out in Asia)
- S&P’s Kraemer: Downside risk to US ratings have increased. One in three chance rating may be downgraded in next 3 years
- ZEW June German economic sentiment index -9.0, some way weaker than median forecast of -2.0
- China ForMin: China is “willing to help European countries realise economic growth in stable manner”
- BOE’s Fisher: UK economic outlook is uncertain, risks both from inflation expectations and weak growth
- BOE’s Fisher: If we get stuck in deflationary rut, not clear could get out easily. Would have to do a lot more QE
- UK May PSNB 15.16 bln, slightly better than median forecast of 15.75 bln
- UK June CBI manufacturing order book balance +1, much better than median forecast of -5. Highest read since March
- European stress test results set to be published on July 13 – Sources
Choppy trade this morning, but when all said and done precious little net change in the majors.
EUR/USD sits at 1.4350, up a mere 10 pips from when I started. System accounts bought early but ran into Asian sovereign selling. Surprisingly weak ZEW data (see above) put the pairing under accelerated pressure, but comments from S&P’s Kraemer (see above) regarding US debt rating then triggered a recovery.
Buy stops now seen through 1.4400. All in all uninspired fare. Much focus on outcome of tonights Greek confidence vote.
Cable hardly changed on day at 1.6205. We did however seen a sharp sell off to session low 1.6165 in the wake of comments from BOE’s Fisher, who raised the possibility of further QE. Kraemers’ US debt rating comments then triggered subsequent recovery, helped by better than expected CBI total orders data.
USD/JPY unchanged at 80.15. “Decent” sell orders at 80.20/30 have so far capped rally attempts in Europe (80.34 session high seen in Asia). Talk of buy stops now through 80.50 and more through 80.65. Sell stops through 80.00.
AUD/USD up at 10575 from early 1.0550. Model funds notable buyers this morning.
