There are previews flying about for the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes, keep your head down or you might get conked by one
- Minutes of the September meeting
- Due at 0130GMT
- There was a special discussion topic at the September meeting on China developments
I posted earlier on RBA September meeting minutes will be out today - preview of AUD impact
More now, quickie thoughts from CBA, Westpac and ANZ (in summary and bolding mine)
CBA:
There was nothing surprising in the Statement accompanying this meeting.
In a recent speech, Governor Lowe mentioned that this meeting's special discussion issue was on China.
- So we can expect to hear more on the RBA's thinking on this topic.
- No doubt including the medium-term problems of China's high corporate debt
- This can temporarily weigh on the AUD.
Westpac:
RBA minutes present minor event risk
- The RBA minutes will provide more information on the Board's expectations but note that the meeting took place before the Q2 GDP release.
- In a post meeting speech, Governor Lowe reiterated that balancing support for the labour market and risks to household debt remain front of mind.
- He also noted that this month's meeting special discussion was on the Chinese economy.
And, more from WPAC:
- The RBA's steady hand at 1.5% was accompanied by a more upbeat tone, especially on business investment, but inflation remains subdued.
- The special topic in September was China's attempt to balance "high and rising levels of debt" with "quite high" growth targets.
ANZ:
- The minutes may provide some further insights into the factors driving the central bank's shift towards its progressively 'hawkish' tone more recently.
- However, with the RBA well priced to start its tightening cycle into 2018, they are not likely to provide a bullish catalyst for the AUD.
- Our RBA Bias Index indicates that RBA statements have become progressively hawkish over this year. The minutes of the Bank's September board meeting will shed light on this development.
Just on those ANZ comments - I posted much on this last week, its worth familiarising yourself with ICYMi:
Also, I posted on ANZ's new 'RBA Bias' indicator here:
