New Zealand Institute of Economic Research report on their 'shadow' RBNZ monetary policy board recommendations:
- continues to recommend the Reserve Bank leave the Official Cash Rate on hold
- Shadow Board continues to see both upside and downside risks to the interest rate outlook
- Very slight bias towards tightening
- "Despite softer inflation and growth earlier this year, the domestic growth outlook remains positive. Rural profitability continues to improve, while consumer confidence is high. Meanwhile, strong migration-led population growth continues to boost demand in many sectors, particularly construction" said John Ballingall, Deputy Chief Executive at NZIER. "Inflation has eased more recently, with inflationary pressures largely contained in capacity constrained sectors such as construction. With little risk of an acceleration in inflation, and shortterm uncertainty going into the General Election, there remains little urgency to lift the OCR."
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Note - the Shadows don't just "preview" the Bank's decision, they provide recommendations on what they think the Bank should do, and not what the believe will happen. Bear this in mind.
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NZIER's Monetary Policy Shadow Board is not a part of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
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Earlier previews I have posted:
