PIMCO’s Tony Crescenzi outlines why it is “likely that the Fed will hint at rather than decide on QE3 when it meets again on April 25th.”

He outlines a number of negative factors worth following:

  • An unwinding of the inventory buildup in the fourth quarter of last year
  • Payback from economic strength in the warm winter weather that borrowed from future months
  • Wealth destruction: $8 trillion of lost household wealth has yet to be recouped
  • A lack of mortgage credit availability
  • Slow income growth: wages are gaining at a 2% pace rather than the normal 3% pace
  • A massive fiscal cliff: over $500 billion of tax increases and spending cuts slated for January 1st
  • Uncertainty over the U.S. election
  • Slower global growth, particularly in (but not confined to) Europe