Preview of the Bank of England's minutes from the July 2015 MPC monetary policy meeting

The BOE will be in focus at 08.30 gmt as we get the vote count and minutes from the July meeting and there's now increased risk in seeing a change in the 9-0 voting pattern today

What have the MPC members being saying recently?

Here's the most recent choice comments

Ian McCafferty (big hawk) - 19 June

  • Financial markets still believe that a rate rise is unlikely until May or June next year
  • Economists suggest Feb or March
  • Either of those dates and a possibility of a late rise before the end of the year are critically going to be data dependant

Martin Weale (big hawk) - 23 June

  • The Bank of England should be ready to raise borrowing costs as early as August

  • Says he was one of two MPC members on the brink of voting for June hike

David Miles (big dove) 14 July

  • The time to start normalization is 'soon'
  • Time for rate increases is getting closer

And today

  • "I'm sure I'll have something to tell the grandchildren. What it'll be, we'll have to wait and see. It's never too late."

Mark Carney (Tape bomb Hawk) 14 July

  • Point at which interest rates may begin to rise is moving closer

16 July

  • It would not seem unreasonable to me to expect that once normalisation begins, interest rate increases would proceed slowly and rise to a level in the medium term that is perhaps about half as high as historical averages. In my view, the decision as to when to start such a process of adjustment will likely come into sharper relief around the turn of this year

Overall hawkish as expected from Weale and McCafferty but Miles and Carney put the icing on the cake for me

We've just seen how much the market is ready to buy into the possibility of the MPC starting to vote for hikes, after cable jumped on Mile's comments. They weren't overly hawkish but as all the comments above show, we're going to get a rate hike

So who will turn and when?

The voting is obviously a big indicator of how close we get to rises. The first to turn are likely to be Weale and McCafferty, as they did late last year before turning tail when the data softened. It will not be unexpected to see these two vote for hikes and they may well do so today. A big jump in the pound will come if they are joined by anyone else. Even with Miles turning hawkish it may be too soon for him but his comment today is nagging me and so there is a risk he votes for hikes in these minutes, certainly the market seems to think so

What's the trade?

Expect a decent pop in cable if we get Weale and McCafferty today and a bigger one if more than two vote for hikes

Expect a fall if the vote remains unchanged

If the votes are unchanged then the August meeting will be the one to buy ahead of. There will be a new format and we'll be getting the minutes and inflation report at the same time. If Weale and McCafferty don't vote for hikes today it's a 95% certainty they will in August, unless we see the data really crumble

As I type cable is still buoyed on the Miles comments as London traders hit their desks. We've now moved to 1.5625. Expect the bid to remain in the pound right up to the release

Two to vote and there's plenty of room on the branch for more