Today sees the latest Bank of England interest rate decision and Minutes at 11.00 GMT
For the second time now we will see a simultaneous release of the BOE interest rate decision and meeting Minutes and it will be the latter/vote count that grabs the attention
Interest rates are not going up any time soon in the UK despite the rhetoric and even if we see more of a hawkish vote today (unlikely) any upward move in GBP is likely to be tempered by a nod towards the Fed's meeting next week and the uncertainty that also brings with it.
Last month's vote was 8-1 to keep rates on hold vs expectations of a 7-2 or even 6-3 vote and that gave GBPUSD a kicking from 1.5620 to 1.5513.Today's expectations are for a similar 8-1 vote.
Since that last meeting UK data has been less than bullish but it's the increasing fragility in the global landscape, both economic and political, that will be high up the MPC agenda with China's wobble/knock-on effect the greatest cause for concern.
Expect discussions too on the lack of global inflation and the impact of a strong GBP on a TWI basis that is also seriously harming the BOE's CPI forecasts.
I don't expect, however, any greater definitive statement/comments on GBP strength with Carney particularly being very cagey so far on this subject either through the MPC or under scrutiny from the Treasury Select Committee
So is the BOE hawkish for a rate hike ? I think that their hands remain firmly tied behind their backs despite the repeated " next rate move will be up " mantra All talk and no action is not a good enough reason to be GBP bullish.
None of this view will come as a surprise to regular readers but at least I'm consistent with my cautious/bearish stance on the UK/GBP/global outlook and have been for some time now.
Expect GBP rallies to be sold with 1.5450 a key level albeit one that brings with it stop-loss buying should it be breached. Demand into 1.5300. EURGBP has buyers nearby at 0.7250 and more between 0.7200-30, with sellers above 0.7325.
Currently GBPUSD 1.5395 in a decent rally from 1.5339 lows helped by EURGBP posting 0.7265 from 0.7305 earlier in the general euro sell-off this morning.
As always trade what you see.