Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy announcement, due on Thursday 29 October 2015 at 9am NZ time

  • 2000GMT on Wednesday 28 October 2015

I have two previews up already:

  • Nomura preview of the RBNZ ... "on hold". And they like short NZD.
  • NZD traders - a quickie preview of the RBNZ meeting this week

Now, from ASB, in brief and bolding is mine:

We judge the RBNZ will be encouraged enough by recent events to keep the OCR on hold, in favour of cutting in December.

Reading further from ASB, they do not rule out a cut this week, though:

  • The RBNZ's September Monetary Policy Statement made a further OCR cut contingent on "the emerging flow of data".
  • Dairy prices have rebounded and the Q3 inflation outcome was in line with the RBNZ's expectations
  • Nevertheless, we think the RBNZ should cut the OCR in October, and that it is a tighter call than the 20% chance market pricing suggests
  • An October OCR cut isn't totally out of the question - particularly if the RBNZ is unhappy about the NZD's rise and doesn't want to add to it
  • We are wary of the risks that inflation is more subdued over 2016 and 2017 than the RBNZ anticipates. Underlying pricing pressures are very muted.
  • The NZD has also rebounded. We are also very mindful the RBNZ could be overestimating how stimulatory interest rates are for the economy.