Bloomberg have an early preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting
In Summary:
- Pricing of a cut show the probability is negligible
- Only two economists expect an easing
Domestic economy:
- RBA has been comforted by recent strong jobs growth (2015 saw the biggest annual jobs gain since 2006) and business conditions
- Inflation is low, expected to stay subdued
Australian dollar:
- Weaker AUD since November's 'chill out' statement from Stevens a tailwind for labor-intensive industries like tourism and education, creating jobs that offset those lost in mining
- Price of iron ore (Australia's biggest export) stabilizing
Global concerns remain:
- China (Concern about leverage and slower growth in China has worsened)
- Oil prices
- Bets the Federal Reserve will tighten again this quarter have dropped
- The EBC indicated it could boost stimulus as soon as March
- BOJ has adopted negative rates
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The announcement from the RBA will come at 0330GMT on Tuesday 2 February 2016, along with the statement accompanying the decision from RBA governor Glenn Stevens simultaneously.
I had a few early previews up last week also:
- RBA meets February 2, preview of what's expected
- RBA first meeting for 2016 is on Tuesday - expected to remain on hold
I'll have another preview up in the Australian morning Tuesday (my time). TBH, I might just steal this TL;DR version from CreditPhil in the comments:
Likely to be one of those where everyone will decrypt every single words, to get to the "Dovish"/"Hawkish" verdict, and I imagine there will some to please every one... Let me guess, likely to have some blurb about China/Oil/Commodities, but reckon that employment has remained solid. Blablabla...
There, I just did ... :-D (Thanks Phil! :-D)
