I just posted on the Nikkei headline on the Bank of Japan that saw USD/JPY (and yen crosses) spike hard.
It was not a piece of news from the BOJ itself - there has still been no announcement
All we do KNOW so far is that the announcement still hasn't come, and its stretching beyond the normal time frame we expect.
As I just posted a little while ago:
Generally I expect it in the 0230GMT to 0330GMT time window
It can be earlier (it won't be today given the time already!), or later.
Generally speaking, the later it is the more discussion there has been and the rule of thumb is the more likely a change is coming.
That applies to 2-day meetings (like today), 1-day meetings tend to run longer cause there is only one day to thrash things out.
This is a guide to announcement times in 2015 (local Tokyo time):
- 21 January 12.29pm
- 18 February 11.49am
- 17 Mar 12.04pm
- 8 Apr 12.36pm
- 30 Apr 1.04pm
- 22 May 11.49am
- 19 Jun 12.04pm
- 15 Jul 12.18pm
- 7 Aug 12.18pm
- 15 Sep 12.07pm
- 7 Oct 12.00pm
- 30 Oct 12.22pm
- 19 November 2015 12.17pm
- 18 December 2015 12.51pm
According to my clock we are into 'overtime' and the likelihood of policy action today from the bank is increasing. BUT, it ain't a done deal yet.
USD/JPY and the Nikkei 225 are both taking off.
Its gonna be very ugly if the Bank of Japan announces no change.
