- More modest price outcomes for some products will not bring headline inflation near to target for 2022 or even for most of 2023 because the energy price shock is so large
- Without some moderation in some prices, the underlying inflation ratchet associated with lagged CPI in firms’ pricing expectations will imply more persistence in keeping inflationary pressures above target
- A tighter monetary stance is warranted due to asymmetric risks
- I argued at February BOE meeting that a front-loaded tightening path was needed to send a strong signal of commitment to the inflation target so as to forestall the embedding of inflation expectations in wages and prices. A front-loaded tightening also would have emphasised the importance of financial market outcomes to the transmission of monetary policy.
- Shock in March hit real incomes, so I voted for only a 25 bps hike
- In March I was willing to wait to see more information on the size and timing of the demand slow-down
- For the May meeting, key topics for me are an assessment and judgment on how much and when the expected consumption drag materialises, and whether we start to see any indication of price forecast revisions in the DMP survey
- Full text
She's not as hawkish as she's touted in this speech and she seems particularly worried about a slowdown in the consumer.