ECB Knot
ECB Knot

ECB's Knot says:

The comments are in line with his comments from last week, when he said:

  • Gradualism is not a mistake
  • We can afford to be gradual as long as inflation seen converging towards target
  • Calls for APP program to be wound down as quickly as possible
  • Does not see QE unwinding sooner than Q3; more likely early Q3 than late
  • Doesn't see recession, sees 'slowflation'
  • Rate hike can come in Sept, Oct or Dec
  • Likelihood of second round effects is becoming larger