Fed's Evans: 50 bps in Sept is a reasonable assessment, 75 is also ok

• 50 bps is reasonable, 75 bps is ok, I doubt 100 bps is called for
• Says he's hopeful they can do 50 bps in Sept end then continue with 25 bps hikes until the beginning of Q2 2023
• There's still a reasonable expectation that tightening into next year will lead to a restrictive setting but allow for reasonably strong labor market
• I see policy rate between 3.75-4.00% by the end of 2023
• It's possible we get a soft landing but there are a lot of risks
• We need to start getting less-ugly inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term reports soon
• I have downgraded my economic growth projections somewhat for this year, probably looking at 1% or lower
• I think unemployment will stay below 4% this year

Bond yields have reversed dramatically today with 2s now just shy of 3% after touching 2.81% earlier. Some of that might be risk aversion around China reversing but these Fed comments highlight the upside risks to the terminal rate. Evans is talking about 4% at the end of 2023 while the market is at 2.85%.