Goldman Sachs predicts the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts by June, adjusting its forecast due to slightly firmer inflation in recent months. The firm now anticipates three rate cuts in 2024, a decrease from its previous forecast of four, due to a marginally higher inflation trajectory. Nonetheless, Goldman Sachs expects the rate cutting cycle to extend into 2025 and 2026, maintaining a terminal rate forecast of 3.25-3.5%.
Key Points:
- Adjustment in Rate Cut Forecasts: Goldman Sachs has revised its rate cut expectations for 2024 from four to three, attributing this change to a slightly higher path for inflation. However, it maintains its prediction for additional cuts in 2025 and foresees a final cut in 2026.
- Fed's June Target: The firm believes the Fed is still aiming for a June start for rate cuts, suggesting that the median dot for 2024 will likely remain at three cuts, aligning with a terminal rate of 4.625%.
- Economic Forecasts: Significant updates to the Fed's economic forecasts are expected to include an uptick in 2024 GDP growth, with the longer-term interest rate projections possibly seeing a modest increase.
Conclusion:
Goldman Sachs' outlook ahead of the March FOMC meeting reflects cautious optimism for initiating rate cuts by mid-year, despite recent firmer inflation readings. The firm's adjustments in rate cut forecasts and its expectation for the Fed's policy trajectory underscore the delicate balance the Fed seeks between fostering economic growth and managing inflationary pressures. This anticipated policy path will have significant implications for financial markets and investors' strategies in the coming months.
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