Earlier today - and for good order - the Atlanta Fed announced their estimate for 3Q growth according to their model. After debuting at 2.1% - after the -0.9% fall in the 2nd quarter - the 2nd estimate for Q3 fell to 1.3%.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on August 1, down from 2.1 percent on July 29. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 2.5 percent and -1.4 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and -2.1 percent, respectively.
As more and more data is put through the model, the changes tend to be less pronounced but the model "is what it is".
In the 2nd quarter when most economists were above 0.0% for their GDP estimates (estimate 0.5%), the Atlanta Fed was at -1.2% (vs -0.9%). So they win the award for the model of the quarter.
PS. The NY Fed quit guesstimating in Q2 and sent their modeling to the garage for repair (or at least stopped posting it weekly). .
