- Normally when we raise rates, the loonie appreciates and so that does part of the work for us. This time that's not happening
- USD has appreciated considerably over the past year
I see some characterizations of Macklem's comments as hawkish today and that's mostly fair. There's a window for a pivot here but I think worries about a further fall in CAD are part of the reason why. Moreover, I don't think the BOC feels the same need to signal a dovish shift ahead of time as others.
In any case, USD strength is really cranking up today with USD/JPY up 120 pips to 1.3736.
More:
- When we assess impact of higher intrest rates on demand, will factor in high household indebtedness levels
- We are more concerned about he upside shocks to inflation than the downside
- Path to a soft landing in Canada is narrow and there are risks
- Whether we can get a soft landing will depend on how sticky inflation is