Via a Reuters poll on the European Central Bank
- 53 of 55 economists expected the ECB to deliver a quarter-point raise on July 21 to -0.25%. Two expected it to hike by 50 basis points, compared to none in the last poll.
- 50 of 55 economists expected the Bank to hike its policy rate by 50 basis points in September, taking the deposit rate out of negative territory to 0.25%.
- Last month forecasters were expecting the ECB to wait until the fourth quarter to bring the deposit rate, currently -0.50%, to positive territory.
More at that link above.
BNP Paribas comment:
- "The ECB is engaging in a dash to neutral to stem the rise in underlying inflationary pressures ... Risks to the near-term outlook are skewed towards a faster increase,"
EUR/USD is not far from recent lows, the USD has a tailwind from a more aggressive Fed:
