The question for me is: Where is the market positioned here?
I don't think Powell is going to say anything particularly hawkish. It will be the same push that every Fed policymaker is making right now: That rates will stay higher for longer.
I dont' think that moves the needle.
I also think he's not ready to send any kind of signal of 50 vs 75 bps but if he does, it might be like Harker and to say that 50 is still a big move, historically.
Now, there's always the risk that traders take some part of the speech the wrong way and we get some volatility but I think that's gotta be dovish and good for risk assets. At the same time, does everyone already know that? We had a really nice rally in stocks yesterday and that could be everyone already piling into that trade.
Then again, I hear lots of hawkish talk/worries too.
