- Economy has been very resilient
- Inflation has picked up more quickly than expected
- Evidence is that labour costs are increasing more quickly
- Not on a preset path on policy and will be guided by the evidence and data
- RBA will be flexible, responsive to changing circumstances
- Expect a further increase in inflation
- Central forecast, which assumes further rate hikes, is inflation will decline to 3% in 2024
This isn't anything out of the ordinary after the decision to increase the cash rate by 25 bps earlier here. As mentioned then, it is a cheeky move by the RBA and with Lowe touting flexibility, it still creates some indecision about how much more aggressive the RBA will be in the months ahead.
That said, given their inflation outlook i.e. 6% this year and not expected to come back down to the target band by 2024, one can expect them to stick with a strong tightening cycle at the very least.
AUD/USD continues to stay more upbeat, up 1% on the day at 0.7117 currently but not building on earlier gains.