USD/CAD jumps today on no news.
Canada is on holiday today and the Canadian dollar is getting beaten up.
Now, you could argue that Canada having a national holiday to celebrate the birth of Queen Victoria is reason-enough to sell the Canadian dollar, but there is no significant news today and oil is flat or slightly higher.
Yet the Canadian dollar is getting beaten up.
I'm bearish on oil, so I'm cautious of fighting it but this is an opportunity to fade a flow-driven trade in a thin market. The odds are good that when liquidity returns tomorrow, the move retraces.
It takes a leap of faith to fight the momentum and in general it's a terrible idea to fight the trend and fade a top but there is an exception to every rule and a flow-driven trade in a thin, holiday market is that time.
Last at 1.2124.
