There are a few steps in the process of changing a forecast
The ECB preview from ABN Amro is a valuable reminder that economists are loath to change their forecasts.
Around the time of the September 2015 Fed decision, a few economists began to throw in the towel on calls for rate hikes but about 50% stood pat (and were wrong). Among that 50%, there were many research notes out with little hedges in them, talking about a potential hike but also what would happen if the Fed didn't hike.
But the one word that creeps up first is always 'still'. When someone still believes in something, they don't really believe in it at all. They might think it's possible, or even likely but it's a clear sign they have lost confidence.
Here's what ABN Amro said ahead of the ECB:
"In a speech before European parliament, ECB president Mario Draghi reiterated his dovish stance that the QE programme can be altered in size, composition and duration. However, Mr Draghi also downplayed the likelihood of immediate action. In short Mr Draghi dampened market prospects for more QE and this has given some support to the euro. Despite these remarks, we still stick to our base case scenario that the ECB will step up its monthly QE purchases by EUR 20bn before year end. In addition, we expect the Fed to start hiking in December. As a result, EUR/USD will likely to fall to parity."
Translation: The evidence is mounting that we were wrong but we're not quite ready to concede defeat yet.
(Update: The ECB didn't increase monthly purchases in 2015 and the euro didn't hit parity.)
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