There seems to be almost universal acceptance that the SNB will raise their ‘line in the sand’ to 1.2500 tomorrow. The market is long in anticipation and the SNB has put itself in an uncomfortable position; if it raises the base, it gives speculators a handy Christmas bonus, whereas if it doesn’t, it risks seeing a sharp sell-off by disappointed longs.

  • Plentiful sell orders are noted above 1.2400
  • Trailing stops noted at regular intervals on the downside, getting particularly heavy below 1.2225
  • Bids expected to start at 1.2125 from SNB, BIS etc but expect more heavy stops below there