1. Weather-related impacts on the result:
- If the overall gain “comes in under consensus, the market response will likely be muted as ‘it was weather’ claims attempt to explain away another month of disappointment,” Sterne Agee Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza wrote in a note to clients. “Of course, a print under 100,000 with widespread weakness across sectors will be much more difficult to shrug off.”
- One spot to look for any weather effect is construction, an industry hit harder than others by frigid temperatures.
2. Friday’s report will feature annual revisions to payroll figures
- Revisions could reshape views of the labor market in 2013
- The 2012 revisions released a year ago upgraded that year’s average gain by nearly 30,000 jobs per month
3. Friday’s report will be the first to show any effect on the labor market from more than 1 million Americans losing extended federal unemployment benefits at the end of December.
- Some economists think a good portion of those recipients will now give up looking for work, causing the unemployment rate to decline
4. Worries About Job Quality
- An Institute for Supply Management released this week showed slower job growth in manufacturing last month, but accelerating employment gains in the service sector. Strong gains in low-wage jobs tends to keep overall incomes in check. Without income growth, consumer spending could slow.
5. Weak Job Growth Could Fight the Fed taper
- Fed policy makers would certainly feel more comfortable if a combination of strong revisions and a decent January pushed the six-month moving average of job creation back above 175,000.
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