Due up from Australia today is February building approvals at 0030GMT:
- for the m/m, expected is -2.0%, prior was 6.8%
- for the y/y, expected is 27.9%, prior was 34.6%
Prior to that (at 0000GMT) we get ANZ job advertisements data for February, prior was -1.7% m/m
Building approval data is a focus for the FX market. It indicates what is in the construction pipeline, an indication that has become even more important since the RBA has been looking of evidence of ‘transition’ in the economy from resource-extraction investment to other sectors.Building approvals, and construction generally, have been on the up, these figures today will provide more clues.
For the AUD … well, lets first look at the RBA:
Yesterday’s RBA meeting announcement (the accompanying statement) was instructive on the AUD … there were some interesting cues in there:
- Where was the jawboning? Calls for a lower AUD were weak indeed, maybe its an indication the RBA has given up on trying to talk it down? It seems to have lost some of its effectiveness, regardless. I am reserving judgement until after April 3, when governor Stevens gives a speech to a lunchtime gathering in Brisbane.
- The RBA is becoming a little more sanguine about the labour market; both job advertisement data and internal RBA information (from their liason with businesses) is showing some reasonable positives.
- House price growth is still a concern, though it is too early for it to be a basis for looking to take rate hike action … if house price growth continues at a double-digit rate, though, thats when the RBA is going to become concerned.
As always, they are data-dependent, but for now it all adds up to a period of stability for interest rates, and what appears to be a sideways period for the AUD too.
For today, AUD has resistance beginning 0.9270/75 then 0.9300/10; support 0.9220/25 initially, then 10/15 and 0.9160/70. I’ll be back with the orderboard as Sydney gets more active.
