RBA’s Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Economic), speaking at an Australian Business Economists ‘Lunchtime Briefing’ event. The topic is ‘The Business Cycle’:
- Growth to be below trend until pick up in 2016
- Says high AUD, falling mining investment, fiscal tightening to weigh on growth
- Reiterates AUD above estimates of fundamental value given falling resource prices
- Very low rates will continue to encourage households to save less, spend more
- Says consumption will eventually boost jobs growth, lower unemployment
- Plays down concerns about sluggish growth in household incomes
- Conditions in place for pick up in non-mining business investment
- Non-mining business investment could be lower than in past without dragging on GDP
More:
- Says AUD may depreciate once fed starts raising rates
- Non-mining invest pickup may not be as strong as in past
- Sees mining investment falling more rapidly in coming year
- Moderate pace of growth in 2q maintained in recent month
- Sees Australia growth pick-up to above-trend pace by 2016
- Sees average growth for major trading partners next 2 years
Quick headlines via Reuters and Bloomberg
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AUD edging a little higher
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Full text: The Business Cycle in Australia
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