ECB minutes from the 8 September 2016 governing council monetary policy meeting

  • Coeure - Constallation of rates is challenging to QE implementation

  • Praet: Any changes to QE has to consider effectiveness for mon pol

  • Praet: Sees a lack of a convincing uptrend for inflation

  • Governing council can adjust QE at anytime to adopt new measures if needed

  • Repeats capacity and readiness to act if needed using all available instruments

  • Governing council should not be unduly influenced by market expectations

  • Crucial to preserve substantial monetary support

  • Downside risks remain, underlying inflation shows no convincing sign of picking up

Even though the taper story came after this meeting, it's remote that they will reduce QE at any rate before March 2017, if we believe the comments above. They have the scope to lower the boundary rate to capture more bonds and if they are worried about scarcity, the other way to play it would be lower monthly purchases but push them out for far longer than what most of the market probably expects.