This analyst says it is far too early to be crying over spilt milk.
From an RBC Capital Markets client note (bolding is mine):
- “Fonterra now forecasts farmers will receive NZD6/kg in the year to May 2015 – down 14% from its previous forecast and almost 30% from the realised payout in the year to May 2014″
- “Only three months into the season, however, the final payout can still change materially‘
Which gives hope to milk bulls (How do you milk a bull?) … BUT … then they add:
- “- in both directions“
- “The RBNZ’s latest forecasts have a falling primary commodity prices already embedded in them”
While the trend in the NZD seems to be turning lower, RBC saying its not necessarily true that Fonterra’s forecast milk payout of NZ$6/kg will be the final figure.