Following the RBNZ decision earlier today, Nomura (via eFX)

"The RBNZ cut its policy rate to 2.50%, as expected. Overall, the message from the RBNZ is that if everything goes according to plan, no further cut in the policy rate will be needed.

However, given the risks to the outlook, there is a high probability that more cuts will be needed if the economy does not evolve as expected. So the policy stance remains slightly dovish, indicating that rates are likely on hold in the short term, but that the likelihood of further cuts remain non-negligible. As such, if the NZD remains stronger than the path expected in the Monetary Policy Statement, the RBNZ will likely need to react and cut rates further.

We believe that that RBNZ will keep rates on hold for some time, but if growth slows or if the NZD remains stronger than expected, it is likely to cut rates further.

However, we believe that the first opportunity for a cut would be at the March meeting, when it updates its forecasts," Nomura argues.