The Reserve Bank of New Zealand 's Financial Stability Report for May 2017
Main points, bolding for further emphasis/summary:
- New Zealand's financial system remains sound
- Risks facing the system have reduced in the past six months
- Outlook for the global economy has been improving
- Global political and policy uncertainty remains elevated
- Debt burdens are high in a number of countries
- A sharp reversal in risk sentiment could lead to higher funding costs for New Zealand banks and an increase in domestic borrowing costs
- New Zealand's banks are vulnerable to these risks because of their increasing reliance on offshore funding for credit growth
- House price growth has slowed in the past eight months, in response to tighter loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions, and a more general tightening in credit and affordability pressures in parts of the country
- House prices remain elevated relative to incomes and rents, and any resurgence would be of concern
- Dairy prices have recovered significantly in the past 12 months, and the majority of dairy farms are likely to have returned to profitability in the 2016/17 season
- However, parts of the dairy sector are carrying excessive debt burdens, and remain vulnerable to a fall in income or an increase in costs
- Banking system maintains strong capital and funding buffers, and profitability remains robust
- Banks have generally tightened credit conditions in light of funding constraints and the increasing risks around housing
- Banks are seeking to reduce their reliance on offshore funding and have raised deposit rates
- While the LVR restrictions have increased the banks' resilience to any fall in house prices, a significant share of housing loans are being made at high debt-to-income (DTI) ratios. Such borrowers tend to be more vulnerable to any increase in interest rates or declines in income
Full text is here: Financial Stability Report for May 2017
The RBNZ have highlighted the risks but seem comfortable to be in a monitoring phase right now. It would appear monetary policy to remain on hold for a while yet.
Still to come from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:
2300GMT -RBNZ governor Wheeler will conduct a press conference (11am local time)
0110GMT -Wheeler appears before a parliamentary committee
The NZD is off a few tics: