The statement will likely be a dud

The statement will likely be a dud

I just don't see any reason to make changes to today's FOMC statement so all the price action we get to today will be in the press conference.

There are a million permutations of things he could say in the Q&A but it will all come down to messaging regarding a taper.

On July 14, he said the economy was "still a ways off" from a reaching the taper standard of 'substantial further progress. If he repeats that, I expect the tone in markets to improve and the dollar to continue softening. If he doesn't, there will be trouble.

At the same appearance, he said "inflation has increased notably and will likely remain elevated in coming months before moderating." I can't imagine any change to that language.

On jobs he said "there is still a long way to go" and I don't see that changing either.