boe pill
  • GDP is projected to fall slightly over the coming quarters
  • Survey indicators that have become available since the publication of the forecast have surprised to the upside, suggesting that the current momentum in economic activity may be slightly stronger than anticipated.
  • CPI inflation is projected to fall to below the 2% target by the end of the forecast horizon
  • GDP is expected to be close to zero in Q1
  • The labor market is tighter than unemployment rate would suggest
  • Unemployment is projected to be very low
  • Full presentation

Cable was trading at 1.1940 ahead of the presentation. His actual comments weren't published but the presentation and his speaking notes were.

None of the slides really jump out as relevant but it's certainly worth looking at.

BOE inflation forecast

Overall, he emphasized that it will be a shallow recession with few job losses and upside risks to inflation . The take here is that February forecasts will be improved somewhat but I'm not sure it changes the path of monetary policy. Cable is unchanged in the aftermath.