- Prior was 1.50-1.75%
- Vote unanimous
- Recent indications of spending and production have softened
- job gains have been robust in recent months
- Repeats that FOMC "is highly attentive to inflation risks"
- Repeats that the FOMC "is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective"
- Balance sheet reduction ongoing as planned
Final Fed funds probabilities at 90.6% for 75 bps and 9.4% for 100 bps. Before the decision, the market was roughly 50/50 on another 75 bps at the September 21 meeting with the remainder at 50 bps but some tail risks towards 100 bps.
The two lines in the statement that will get the most attention are changes to the June commentary that "the Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks" and that the Fed "anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate." There was some speculation those could be watered down but that hasn't happened.
The statement offers very little new information or indications about what's coming in September and beyond, so we'll have to wait for Powell.
The FOMC press conference will take place at 2:30 pm ET, 1830 GMT. Watch it here:
Federal reserve
