From the People's Bank of China we had the MLF at an unchanged rate earlier this week:

This is looked to as a guide to the monthly Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting, due on the 20th.

Current LPRs:

  • 3.65% for the one year
  • 4.30% for the five year

UOB see scope for a cut to these. Citing the need for further support measures for toward the real economy, and for the five-year to fall to further boost demand for homes.

UOB say:

  • we see the possibility for the 1-year LPR to fall to 3.55%
  • and 5-year LPR to 4.20%

next week. Further out:

  • The loosening bias for monetary policy may start to reverse in 2H23, though, should the economy show stronger rebound and inflation quicken
PBOC building