Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock spoke in parliament. She didn't add a lot to what she said earlier in the week but that hasn't stopped markets from pushing rate cut expectations out further.

ICYMI:

And make sure you mix in this bombshell forecast for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:

As an aside, if ANZ are correct and that's what we get from the RBNZ it should trigger a wider rethink of expectations for other DM central banks. Anyway, back to the RBA:

  • the probability of a rate cut from the RBA in May has dropped from around 50% last week to around 20 now
  • September is still seen as the the most likely month for the first rate cut
  • UBS to now expect the first rate cut from the RBA in November, rather than August.
  • Capital Economics are tipping August for the first cut, from May
scissors cut