Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock spoke in parliament. She didn't add a lot to what she said earlier in the week but that hasn't stopped markets from pushing rate cut expectations out further.


And make sure you mix in this bombshell forecast for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:

As an aside, if ANZ are correct and that's what we get from the RBNZ it should trigger a wider rethink of expectations for other DM central banks. Anyway, back to the RBA:

  • the probability of a rate cut from the RBA in May has dropped from around 50% last week to around 20 now
  • September is still seen as the the most likely month for the first rate cut
  • UBS to now expect the first rate cut from the RBA in November, rather than August.
  • Capital Economics are tipping August for the first cut, from May
scissors cut