Reserve Bank of Australia minutes, Headlines via Reuters

  • Board considered raising rates by 25bp or holding steady
  • Board agreed on case for holding rates steady was the stronger one
  • Board saw a "credible path" back to the inflation target with cash rates at current 4.1%
  • Board agreed it was possible some further tightening might be needed
  • Need for further hike would depend on data, evolving assessment of risks
  • Inflation heading in the right direction, though service inflation too high
  • Consumption had slowed significantly even as the full effect of past tightening yet to be felt
  • The labour market had been resilient, but early signs it might be at a turning point
  • Board saw "plausible scenarios" where inflation took longer than acceptable to return to target
  • Controlling persistent inflation would require more rate rises than otherwise
  • Staff inflation forecast had assumed one more hike, rates notably lower than in other countries
  • Rise in housing prices could mean financial conditions not as tight as assumed

While the RBA is keeping its options open these don't read as minutes indicating the Bank is keen on raising the cash rate again. The default position now appears to be holding the cash rates steady.

The rate hike cycle so far, August was on hold:

rba rate hike cycle 01 August 2023