More again from Waller's Q&A (which is now complete)

  • Waller notes he looks through the loosening in financial conditions indexes because it's mostly the stock market - specifically the Magnificent 7.
  • Also notes tight credit spreads could just be the rise in private credit lending. He thinks conditions are tight because real rates remain high.
  • Inflation adjusted interest rates seem to have gone back up since christmas; lot of factors go into rate spreads
  • Want to see up to five months of good inflation data, so far have only two months; question is how much data do you need
  • Fed is reacting to the data and not 'overreacting;' have two more inflation rates before may fomc meeting
  • 'no evidence' quantitative tightening has been a reason rates have gone up; balance sheet has more effect during stress
  • Unemployment rate doesn't have to stay at 3.7% to have a soft landing; if unemployment goes up no reason to panic



hawk on a forex trading room floor