ING with a solid response to today's data from Japan, the county avoided a recession:


  • Japan’s 4Q23 GDP was revised up to 0.1% QoQ sa from the preliminary reading of -0.1%. As a result, Japan has avoided a technical recession. That said, today’s reading was weaker than the market consensus of 0.3%.
  • As suggested by earlier capital spending data, solid non-residential investment growth of 2.0% was the main reason for the rebound (vs -0.1% preliminary, 2.4% market consensus). But private consumption remained sluggish, contracting by -0.3% (vs -0.2% preliminary and market consensus), and was the main reason for growth remaining modest.
  • Today's data certainly supports the BoJ's view that the economy remains on a recovery path, but weak private consumption will be a concern for the BoJ as it mulls a change to its policy direction. We therefore see a higher chance of a policy change in April than this month.

(bolding is mine)


ps. From Japan over the weekend, perhaps we'll get something from the March 18 & 19 Bank of Japan meeting:

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda 03 October 2023