That's a good result for the PM

Voting closes in six minutes so that's far from the final tally, but the Daily Telegraph says 86 Conservative MPs voted against her.

If so, that would be a fairly big win for the Prime Minister and would mean a 231-86 split. There has also been talk of 200 votes for May.

We really haven't heard from 30 MPs and others could be lying. So I wouldn't expect to see 231-86. That would be the absolute best-case scenario for May.

From what I've heard, I'd guess something around 207-110.

If you want a rule of thumb, anything better than 200 votes from May will be spun into something of a victory for her; even if she had to make some ridiculous, impossible promises today to get there.