A look at just how disappointing the US has been in the past six weeks

A look at the Citi Economic Surprise Index

Citi has an index that measure how well economic data has performed relative to expectations. At the moment, the US is dead last. Over the past six weeks, economic data has consistently disappointed and the index is now at the lowest in a year.

What's incredible is that the Fed hasn't acknowledged any change. It looks like they're on autopilot for a June cut and then will wait and see if the numbers pick up before hiking again in September.

The odds of a June hike fell to 78.5% today from 88% on Thursday. That's after CPI and retail sales missed estimates.

At this point. plenty of disappoint is built in but given how the US dollar has mostly shrugged off the bad news, it's tough to bet against it. I think the spot to watch is Fed speak. Mester, Bullard, Kaplan and Williams are on the docket this week.