The September 2021 US employment report from ADP
- Prior was 374K (revised to 340K)
- Small business +63K vs +86K prior
- Midsized +115K vs +149K prior
- Large +390K vs +138K prior
- Goods producing +102K vs +45K prior
- Service providing +446K vs +329K prior
Non-farm payrolls are expected at 473K on Friday. The ADP report has a poor track record of predicting non-farm payrolls, particularly since the pandemic, but last month it did foreshadow a soft reading. Whether that's luck or whether that's improved tracking is something we'll find out on Friday but I don't think anyone is putting too much stock in ADP at the moment. The market reaction has been minimal.
"The labor market recovery continues to make progress despite a marked slowdown from the 748,000 job pace in the second quarter," said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "Leisure and hospitality remains one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, yet hiring is still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. Current bottlenecks in hiring should fade as the health conditions tied to the COVID-19 variant continue to improve, setting the stage for solid job gains in the coming months."
