A look at the damage so far this month
The story in US economic data so far in June has been a sharp decline in manufacturing surveys.
It started with the Empire Fed as it posted its worst one-month drop on record in a plunge to -8.6 from +17.8. So far it looks like that wasn't a fluke.
Since then, the Philly Fed has fallen to +0.3 from +16.6 and yesterday the Dallas Fed dropped to -12.1 from -5.3.
Next up is the Richmond Fed at the top of the hour. It's forecast at +2 from +5 in May. Another miss would raise fresh questions about the trade war, inventories and a sudden shift economic sentiment.
On July 1, the ISM national survey is due out and the current consensus is 51.4 from 52.1. Expect the market to start pricing in something lower.
