If I'm not wrong, here are the first preview or two (or three)of the non farm payroll data due Friday in the US (8.30am local time, 1330GMT)

Just a quickie, from 3 banks expectations


  • Signs suggest GDP growth wasn't particularly strong in Q4
  • But firms continued to hire (ADP Employment report showed that the economy added 257k jobs in December, well ahead of the consensus of 198k and a nice pickup from last month's solid 211k)
  • December's number is the highest in a year
  • Suggest that the pace of hiring continues to be brisk
  • ADP doesn't have a particularly good correlation with Non-Farm Payrolls ... but the result adds some upside pressure to the consensus and our forecast
  • If Friday's release does show the same type of strength, that's one box that will likely to be ticked for another Fed hike in March


  • "We expect that private payrolls increased by 210k in December, implying that the government sector added 10k workers
  • Incoming data over the month on the labor markets have been broadly favorable with the exception of the manufacturing sector
  • Weather conditions over the last several months have been warmer than usual, probably boosting economic activity"

Deutsche Bank:

  • Forecasting 160k (down from our earlier estimate of 200k)
  • Lowered forecasts citing the very soft (at least relative to expectations) December domestic automobile sales results