Real, seasonally adjusted retail sales:
March preliminary: +0.3% m/m, -0.2% y/y
MNI survey median: -0.2% m/m, -0.6% y/y
MNI survey range: -0.4% to +0.3% m/m
February revision: -0.2% m/m (-0.1%)
January revision: +1.0% m/m (+1.1%)
December: -1.2% m/m
November: -0.3% m/m
October: -0.1% m/m
—
PARIS (MNI) – Eurozone retail sales surprised on the upside in
March with a 0.3% rise that gave a 0.1% gain for 1Q after -1.1% in 4Q.
according to seasonally adjusted estimates released Friday by Eurostat.
Yet sales of food, drink and tobacco were flat on the month and
non-food sales excluding motor fuel recovered by only 0.1%. This points
to a solid rise in sales at the gas pump, for which no figures were
released.
Eurozone retail sales had been on an uneven downward trend for
nearly two years. Amid stagnant economic activity and rising
unemployment, little significant pick-up is likely as long as costly
food and energy continue to undermine consumers’ purchasing power.
The latest available GDP data show consumer prices rising more than
twice as fast as nominal incomes in 4Q, giving a 0.4% decline in real
earnings after -0.3% in 3Q. The declines would have been even steeper
without the cushioning effect of social transfers. Real consumption
expenditure dropped 0.7% in 4Q, as the savings rate recovered somewhat
from a three-year low in 3Q.
Consumers say their financial situation has deteriorated further in
the meantime, according to European Commission surveys. They also expect
the downward trend to continue, given their bleak outlook for the
economy and the labor market. More consumers are putting off major
purchases and planning to tighten their belts over the coming year.
Retailers polled by the Commission are on balance pessimistic as
well, given the dire prospects for turnover in most peripheral
countries, which are crimping expectations for sales prices.
The latest joint forecasts from the French and Italian statistics
institutes, Insee and Istat, and Germany’s Ifo think tank, see
consumption sliding further through mid-year and stagnating in 3Q.
In Germany, where leading indicators remain promising, retail sales
bounced back 0.8% in March, but steeper drops in the previous two months
gave a 1.0% decline for 1Q. Although high petrol prices are dampening
income expectations, buying-propensity as measured by the GfK group
remains resilient. Retailers canvassed by Ifo last month said current
business had softened slightly after a sharp improvement since the start
of the year, but they were more optimistic for the medium term.
In France, sales volumes rose 0.9% on the month for a 0.5% gain in
1Q. However, as in most of the Eurozone, economic fundamentals here
point to anemic spending in the coming months. Insee expects per capita
revenues to decline 0.3% in real terms in the first half of this year
and consumption to lose steam in the coming months.
After a two months of recovery, Spain’s retail sales fell 0.5% in
March to stand 3.9% lower on the year — the largest annual drop after
Portugal’s (-5.0%). Drastic fiscal tightening has accentuated consumers’
concerns about job prospects and future finances, while retailers remain
pessimistic about future sales, though less so than in recent months.
No current data were released for Italy. In February, retail sales
were 2.2% below the previous-year level. Retailers’ outlook for
near-term turnover plunged in April to the lowest level in years,
Istat’s surveys show.
Among the smaller reporting countries, monthly results were mostly
weaker, with declines in Finland (-0.4%), Belgium (-0.5%), Malta
(-0.6%), Slovakia (-0.9%), Slovenia (-1.4%), Estonia (-2.0%) and
Portugal (-2.2%). Gains were limited to Austria (+1.9%) and Luxembourg
(+1.1%). Sales in Ireland were flat on the month.
Solid annual gains were reported in Finland (+5.3%), Austria
(+3.3%), Belgium (+2.9%), Luxembourg (+7.2%) and Estonia (+9.3%). The
Eurozone average was slightly lower on the year (-0.2%).
–Paris newsroom +331 42 71 55 40; email: ssandelius@marketnews.com
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